Big Ten Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big Ten enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern
Trending Down (Efficiency): Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue

Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1651.9 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +40.11 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Indiana

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1607.6 (ranked 55 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +43.16 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Iowa

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1567.2 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.65 (ranked 21 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Maryland

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1636.2 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.03 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Michigan

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1648.2 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.46 (ranked 27 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Michigan State

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1698.8 (ranked 11 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.75 (ranked 69 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Minnesota

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1518.4 (ranked 159 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.48 (ranked 71 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Nebraska

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1598.0 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.39 (ranked 34 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Northwestern

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1578.8 (ranked 82 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.04 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Ohio State

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1579.9 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.17 (ranked 45 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Oregon

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1652.5 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.82 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Penn State

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1561.5 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.68 (ranked 76 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Purdue

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1698.9 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +36.98 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Rutgers

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1541.2 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.00 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

UCLA

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1617.7 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.83 (ranked 109 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Fouls Per Poss (Fouls Per Possession): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

USC

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1551.6 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.02 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Washington

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1512.2 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.08 (ranked 49 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Wisconsin

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1651.5 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.28 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Ten teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB1G

TagsB1G Big 10 Conference