ACC Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The ACC enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 17 – November 23, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Duke, Florida State, Louisville, Miami, NC State
Trending Down (Efficiency): Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, UNC, Pitt

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1462.1 (ranked 241 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.89 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Cal

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1483.6 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.37 (ranked 63 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Clemson

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1674.2 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +41.60 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Duke

Record: 7-0 | Elo: 1766.3 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +55.67 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Florida State

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1540.2 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.00 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Georgia Tech

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1534.5 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.02 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Louisville

Record: 6-0 | Elo: 1630.3 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +44.81 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
3Pt Rate (3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Miami

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1470.1 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.14 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

NC State

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1530.2 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.31 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Notre Dame

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1498.8 (ranked 184 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.83 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Pitt

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1534.4 (ranked 135 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.39 (ranked 137 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

SMU

Record: 7-0 | Elo: 1611.8 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.89 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Stanford

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1545.4 (ranked 115 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.42 (ranked 98 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Syracuse

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1532.9 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.63 (ranked 31 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UNC

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1653.0 (ranked 22 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +39.22 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UVA

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1559.4 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.01 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Virginia Tech

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1530.4 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.98 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Wake Forest

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1593.3 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.21 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As ACC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC

TagsAtlantic Coast Conference