Atlantic Sun Update: Week 3

Atlantic Sun Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic Sun enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1457.6 (ranked 251 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.45 (ranked 136 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Bellarmine

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1335.6 (ranked 354 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.80 (ranked 276 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1362.4 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.28 (ranked 311 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

E Kentucky

Record: 1-5 | Elo: 1470.3 (ranked 228 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.03 (ranked 247 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

FGCU

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1517.3 (ranked 162 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.54 (ranked 186 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Jacksonville

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1500.0 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.08 (ranked 295 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Lipscomb

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1545.6 (ranked 114 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.44 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

North Alabama

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1517.0 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.38 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

North Florida

Record: 1-5 | Elo: 1422.9 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.37 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Queens University

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1488.6 (ranked 202 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.74 (ranked 178 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Stetson

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1400.8 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.07 (ranked 328 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

West Georgia

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1402.3 (ranked 314 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.69 (ranked 268 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic Sun teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryASUN
TagsAtlantic Sun Conference

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