Missouri Valley Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Missouri Valley enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 17 – November 23, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois State, Belmont, Murray State, UIC
Trending Down (Efficiency): Bradley, Drake, Evansville, Indiana State, Northern Iowa

Team-by-Team Analysis

Belmont

Record: 6-0 | Elo: 1607.7 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.54 (ranked 60 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Bradley

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1608.5 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.91 (ranked 102 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Drake

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1674.7 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.97 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Evansville

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1415.9 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.34 (ranked 333 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Illinois State

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1535.5 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.72 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Indiana State

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1535.0 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.37 (ranked 128 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Murray State

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1503.5 (ranked 177 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.55 (ranked 123 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Northern Iowa

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1594.5 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.76 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

S Illinois

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1491.8 (ranked 197 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.32 (ranked 93 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UIC

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1489.0 (ranked 201 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.28 (ranked 172 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Valparaiso

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1472.5 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.97 (ranked 131 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTA Per Poss (Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Missouri Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMVC

TagsMissouri Valley Conference