WAC Update: Week 3

WAC Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The WAC enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for WAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Abil Christian

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1494.3 (ranked 192 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.30 (ranked 221 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

California Baptist

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1539.5 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.78 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Southern Utah

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1392.7 (ranked 321 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.92 (ranked 353 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Tarleton

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1492.1 (ranked 196 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.32 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UT Arlington

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1495.7 (ranked 191 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.76 (ranked 121 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Utah Tech

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1378.5 (ranked 331 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.42 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Utah Valley

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1592.7 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.54 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As WAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryWAC
TagsWAC Western Athletic Conference

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