Coastal Update: Week 5

Coastal Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Colonial enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Colonial teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Campbell

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1455.1 (ranked 250 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.49 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Charleston

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1583.2 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.56 (ranked 208 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Drexel

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1488.8 (ranked 205 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.08 (ranked 223 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Elon

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1466.0 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.74 (ranked 126 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Hampton

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1448.7 (ranked 258 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.74 (ranked 226 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Hofstra

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1521.2 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.97 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Monmouth

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1488.7 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.82 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

NC A&T

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1382.3 (ranked 330 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.89 (ranked 192 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Northeastern

Record: 4-5 | Elo: 1490.1 (ranked 202 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.63 (ranked 176 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Stony Brook

Record: 6-3 | Elo: 1441.3 (ranked 268 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.40 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 3Pt Rate (3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Towson

Record: 6-4 | Elo: 1591.3 (ranked 76 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.03 (ranked 193 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UNC Wilmington

Record: 9-1 | Elo: 1644.9 (ranked 33 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.71 (ranked 72 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

William & Mary

Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1512.3 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.09 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Colonial teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCAA
TagsCAA Coastal Coastal Athletic Association Colonial Colonial Athletic Association

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