MAAC Update: Week 5

MAAC Update: Week 5

December 8, 2025 0 By Neill White

The MAAC enters Week 5 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1354.5 (ranked 351 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.91 (ranked 353 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Fairfield

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1460.0 (ranked 243 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.35 (ranked 257 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Iona

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1544.3 (ranked 121 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.43 (ranked 133 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Manhattan

Record: 4-6 | Elo: 1441.5 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.73 (ranked 311 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Marist

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1534.5 (ranked 132 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.79 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Merrimack

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1523.9 (ranked 151 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.29 (ranked 274 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 2-8 | Elo: 1482.8 (ranked 212 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.82 (ranked 285 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Niagara

Record: 2-7 | Elo: 1397.4 (ranked 318 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.29 (ranked 342 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Quinnipiac

Record: 7-3 | Elo: 1577.3 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.36 (ranked 143 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Rider

Record: 1-7 | Elo: 1435.5 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.22 (ranked 345 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Sacred Heart

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1446.4 (ranked 261 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.73 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Siena

Record: 9-2 | Elo: 1493.7 (ranked 194 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.76 (ranked 114 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

St Peter’s

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1471.9 (ranked 228 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.68 (ranked 253 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As MAAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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