Atlantic Sun Update: Week 7

Atlantic Sun Update: Week 7

December 23, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic Sun enters Week 7 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 5-5 | Elo: 1460.5 (ranked 239 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.90 (ranked 174 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Bellarmine

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1347.4 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.36 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 5-8 | Elo: 1365.6 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.94 (ranked 246 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

E Kentucky

Record: 4-9 | Elo: 1464.1 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.00 (ranked 280 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

FGCU

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1480.5 (ranked 214 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.68 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Jacksonville

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1469.0 (ranked 231 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.10 (ranked 340 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Lipscomb

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1572.8 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.82 (ranked 183 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

North Alabama

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1524.8 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.21 (ranked 313 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Florida

Record: 2-10 | Elo: 1396.6 (ranked 314 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.00 (ranked 349 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Queens University

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1485.7 (ranked 204 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.10 (ranked 186 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Stetson

Record: 4-8 | Elo: 1370.0 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.29 (ranked 343 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Georgia

Record: 6-5 | Elo: 1402.4 (ranked 312 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.66 (ranked 285 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic Sun teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryASUN
TagsASUN Atlantic Sun Atlantic Sun Conference

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