Big Ten Update: Week 7
December 23, 2025The Big Ten enters Week 7 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: December 15 – December 21, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin
Team-by-Team Analysis
Illinois
Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1650.2 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.97 (ranked 29 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Indiana
Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1602.2 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.70 (ranked 30 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Iowa
Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1604.3 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.50 (ranked 11 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Maryland
Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1608.2 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.52 (ranked 141 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Michigan
Record: 11-0 | Elo: 1707.5 (ranked 12 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +50.96 (ranked 1 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Michigan State
Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1730.8 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.80 (ranked 17 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Minnesota
Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1516.4 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.84 (ranked 100 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Nebraska
Record: 12-0 | Elo: 1657.4 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.06 (ranked 20 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Northwestern
Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1547.0 (ranked 118 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.23 (ranked 35 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Ohio State
Record: 8-3 | Elo: 1583.1 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.30 (ranked 27 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Oregon
Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1608.1 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.42 (ranked 109 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Penn State
Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1542.2 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.85 (ranked 135 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Purdue
Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1730.5 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.84 (ranked 4 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Rutgers
Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1517.3 (ranked 162 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.56 (ranked 172 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
UCLA
Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1627.6 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.00 (ranked 49 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
USC
Record: 12-1 | Elo: 1602.2 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.39 (ranked 42 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Washington
Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1523.1 (ranked 150 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.72 (ranked 71 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Wisconsin
Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1634.5 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.04 (ranked 64 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As Big Ten teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
