Big 12 Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big 12 enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 22 – December 28, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Trending Down (Efficiency): Cincinnati

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 12-0 | Elo: 1737.4 (ranked 5 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +36.11 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Arizona State

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1536.1 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.79 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

BYU

Record: 12-1 | Elo: 1705.1 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.21 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Baylor

Record: 9-2 | Elo: 1641.8 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.39 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cincinnati

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1549.7 (ranked 115 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.33 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Colorado

Record: 10-3 | Elo: 1567.5 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.66 (ranked 93 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Houston

Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1801.6 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.88 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Iowa State

Record: 12-0 | Elo: 1718.0 (ranked 11 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.62 (ranked 7 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Kansas

Record: 10-3 | Elo: 1665.8 (ranked 23 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.91 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Kansas State

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1565.7 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.67 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Oklahoma State

Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1589.0 (ranked 79 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.07 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

TCU

Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1576.0 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.24 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas Tech

Record: 10-3 | Elo: 1690.8 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.11 (ranked 43 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UCF

Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1613.0 (ranked 59 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.48 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Utah

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1532.1 (ranked 135 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.69 (ranked 142 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Virginia

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1551.2 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.69 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big 12 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12

TagsBig 12 Big 12 Conference