Big West Update: Week 8

Big West Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big West enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

CSU Bakersfield

Record: 6-8 | Elo: 1415.2 (ranked 292 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.04 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

CSU Fullerton

Record: 5-9 | Elo: 1362.8 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.52 (ranked 257 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

CSU Northridge

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1526.3 (ranked 145 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.32 (ranked 265 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Points per Poss (Opp Points per Possession): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Cal Poly

Record: 5-9 | Elo: 1410.8 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.71 (ranked 271 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Hawai’i

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1504.3 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.14 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Long Beach St

Record: 3-10 | Elo: 1360.5 (ranked 347 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.94 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UC Davis

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1489.1 (ranked 201 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.99 (ranked 205 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UC Irvine

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1631.3 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.77 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UC Riverside

Record: 6-8 | Elo: 1515.2 (ranked 165 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.37 (ranked 303 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UC San Diego

Record: 11-2 | Elo: 1655.9 (ranked 26 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.94 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UCSB

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1531.2 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.39 (ranked 194 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBWC
TagsBig West Big West Conference BWC

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