Mountain West Update: Week 8

Mountain West Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Mountain West enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mountain West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Air Force

Record: 3-9 | Elo: 1325.0 (ranked 359 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.72 (ranked 305 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Boise State

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1642.9 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.66 (ranked 85 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Colorado State

Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1653.7 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.33 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Fresno State

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1393.0 (ranked 317 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.42 (ranked 208 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Grand Canyon

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1624.1 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.01 (ranked 106 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Blocks Per FGA (Blocks Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Nevada

Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1590.6 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.96 (ranked 98 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

New Mexico

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1671.6 (ranked 22 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.03 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

San Diego State

Record: 7-4 | Elo: 1622.4 (ranked 52 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.36 (ranked 109 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

San Jose State

Record: 5-7 | Elo: 1445.3 (ranked 258 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.34 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UNLV

Record: 5-6 | Elo: 1542.9 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.88 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Utah State

Record: 10-1 | Elo: 1690.4 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.80 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Wyoming

Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1488.4 (ranked 202 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.72 (ranked 101 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mountain West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMWC
TagsMountain West Mountain West Conference MWC

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