Sun Belt Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Sun Belt enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 22 – December 28, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Appalachian St, Arkansas State, Ga Southern, Georgia State, Louisiana
Trending Down (Efficiency): C. Carolina, South Alabama, Texas State, James Madison, Southern Miss

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1511.8 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.34 (ranked 211 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Arkansas State

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1603.0 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.29 (ranked 160 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

C. Carolina

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1428.1 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.70 (ranked 224 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Ga Southern

Record: 10-5 | Elo: 1502.5 (ranked 181 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.09 (ranked 185 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Georgia State

Record: 4-10 | Elo: 1415.0 (ranked 294 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.35 (ranked 332 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

James Madison

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1530.7 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.99 (ranked 226 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Louisiana

Record: 3-11 | Elo: 1416.0 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.49 (ranked 323 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Marshall

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1528.3 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.81 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Old Dominion

Record: 4-10 | Elo: 1408.2 (ranked 304 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.08 (ranked 206 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

South Alabama

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1559.4 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.99 (ranked 191 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Southern Miss

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1426.3 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.90 (ranked 210 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas State

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1476.3 (ranked 218 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.18 (ranked 264 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Troy

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1582.8 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.53 (ranked 157 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UL Monroe

Record: 3-11 | Elo: 1299.4 (ranked 367 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.64 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Sun Belt teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference