Southern Update: Week 8

Southern Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Southern enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southern teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Chattanooga

Record: 6-7 | Elo: 1578.8 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.18 (ranked 290 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

ETSU

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1523.4 (ranked 151 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.22 (ranked 118 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Furman

Record: 9-4 | Elo: 1585.9 (ranked 82 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.42 (ranked 201 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Mercer

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1483.3 (ranked 210 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.35 (ranked 158 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Samford

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1566.0 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.65 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

The Citadel

Record: 3-10 | Elo: 1260.1 (ranked 369 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -31.95 (ranked 359 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UNCG

Record: 4-9 | Elo: 1477.1 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.02 (ranked 325 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

VMI

Record: 3-8 | Elo: 1367.0 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.68 (ranked 340 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Fouls Per Poss (Fouls Per Possession): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

W Carolina

Record: 4-7 | Elo: 1417.0 (ranked 290 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.88 (ranked 322 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Wofford

Record: 8-5 | Elo: 1533.8 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.06 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southern teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySOCON
TagsSOCON Southern Southern Conference

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