Big Ten Update: Week 8

December 29, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big Ten enters Week 8 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 22 – December 28, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State
Trending Down (Efficiency): Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers, Washington

Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1658.3 (ranked 24 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.76 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Indiana

Record: 10-3 | Elo: 1606.7 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.24 (ranked 27 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Iowa

Record: 10-2 | Elo: 1604.3 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.50 (ranked 9 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Maryland

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1611.2 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.16 (ranked 128 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Michigan

Record: 11-0 | Elo: 1707.5 (ranked 13 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +50.96 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Michigan State

Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1730.8 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.80 (ranked 18 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Minnesota

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1516.4 (ranked 164 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.84 (ranked 99 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Nebraska

Record: 12-0 | Elo: 1657.4 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.06 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Northwestern

Record: 7-5 | Elo: 1547.0 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.23 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Ohio State

Record: 9-3 | Elo: 1587.1 (ranked 81 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.69 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Oregon

Record: 7-6 | Elo: 1612.6 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.84 (ranked 100 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Penn State

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1542.2 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.85 (ranked 139 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Purdue

Record: 11-1 | Elo: 1730.5 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.84 (ranked 4 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Rutgers

Record: 6-6 | Elo: 1517.3 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.56 (ranked 171 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UCLA

Record: 10-3 | Elo: 1632.3 (ranked 43 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.49 (ranked 47 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

USC

Record: 12-1 | Elo: 1602.2 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.39 (ranked 45 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Washington

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1527.0 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.60 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Wisconsin

Record: 8-4 | Elo: 1637.2 (ranked 39 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.37 (ranked 55 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Ten teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB1G

TagsB1G Big 10 Big 10 Conference