American Update: Week 9

American Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The American enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 6-8 | Elo: 1440.6 (ranked 262 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.69 (ranked 144 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

ECU

Record: 5-9 | Elo: 1451.3 (ranked 247 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.17 (ranked 310 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

FAU

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1570.8 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.15 (ranked 112 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Memphis

Record: 7-7 | Elo: 1641.0 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.73 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Texas

Record: 10-5 | Elo: 1610.5 (ranked 64 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.02 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Rice

Record: 6-9 | Elo: 1411.5 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.31 (ranked 285 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Temple

Record: 10-5 | Elo: 1533.2 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.51 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Tulane

Record: 11-4 | Elo: 1558.8 (ranked 108 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.32 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Tulsa

Record: 13-2 | Elo: 1523.3 (ranked 151 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.53 (ranked 52 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UAB

Record: 10-5 | Elo: 1611.6 (ranked 63 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.45 (ranked 124 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

USF

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1509.2 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.07 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UTSA

Record: 4-10 | Elo: 1389.8 (ranked 313 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.15 (ranked 345 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Wichita State

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1536.3 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.65 (ranked 65 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC
TagsAAC American American Athletic Conference American Conference

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