Big Ten Update: Week 9

January 5, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big Ten enters Week 9 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: December 29 – January 04, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State
Trending Down (Efficiency): Maryland, Nebraska, Penn State, Rutgers, Wisconsin

Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1671.1 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.57 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Indiana

Record: 11-3 | Elo: 1612.1 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.79 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Iowa

Record: 12-2 | Elo: 1616.0 (ranked 59 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.28 (ranked 9 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Maryland

Record: 7-7 | Elo: 1598.5 (ranked 75 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.97 (ranked 138 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Michigan

Record: 13-0 | Elo: 1717.7 (ranked 11 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +50.13 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Michigan State

Record: 12-2 | Elo: 1725.1 (ranked 9 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.43 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Minnesota

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1533.8 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.11 (ranked 90 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Nebraska

Record: 14-0 | Elo: 1668.8 (ranked 22 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.29 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Northwestern

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1538.5 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.47 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Ohio State

Record: 10-3 | Elo: 1598.1 (ranked 76 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.90 (ranked 30 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oregon

Record: 8-6 | Elo: 1625.3 (ranked 55 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.44 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Penn State

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1536.1 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.44 (ranked 137 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Purdue

Record: 13-1 | Elo: 1745.0 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +40.70 (ranked 2 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Rutgers

Record: 7-7 | Elo: 1510.8 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.42 (ranked 160 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UCLA

Record: 10-4 | Elo: 1624.4 (ranked 56 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.89 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

USC

Record: 12-2 | Elo: 1597.7 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.80 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Washington

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1528.9 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.14 (ranked 62 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Wisconsin

Record: 9-5 | Elo: 1632.0 (ranked 48 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.16 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Ten teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB1G

TagsB1G Big 10 Big 10 Conference