American Update: Week 10

American Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The American enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 8-8 | Elo: 1464.2 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.63 (ranked 139 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

ECU

Record: 5-11 | Elo: 1437.6 (ranked 269 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.99 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

FAU

Record: 11-6 | Elo: 1593.4 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.38 (ranked 95 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Memphis

Record: 7-8 | Elo: 1632.3 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.24 (ranked 114 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

North Texas

Record: 10-7 | Elo: 1586.0 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.52 (ranked 164 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Rice

Record: 7-10 | Elo: 1415.0 (ranked 294 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.39 (ranked 262 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Temple

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1538.4 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.40 (ranked 109 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Tulane

Record: 12-4 | Elo: 1566.5 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.15 (ranked 191 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Tulsa

Record: 13-3 | Elo: 1510.5 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.26 (ranked 69 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UAB

Record: 11-6 | Elo: 1606.3 (ranked 64 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.07 (ranked 128 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

USF

Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1537.2 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.22 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UTSA

Record: 4-12 | Elo: 1370.7 (ranked 332 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.52 (ranked 353 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Wichita State

Record: 10-7 | Elo: 1529.9 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.33 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC American
TagsAAC American American Athletic Conference American Conference

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