Big West Update: Week 10

Big West Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big West enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

CSU Bakersfield

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1423.7 (ranked 279 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.47 (ranked 288 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Fouls Drawn Per Poss (Fouls Drawn Per Possession): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

CSU Fullerton

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1398.3 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.21 (ranked 232 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

CSU Northridge

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1518.7 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.80 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Cal Poly

Record: 7-11 | Elo: 1420.7 (ranked 283 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.83 (ranked 265 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Hawai’i

Record: 12-3 | Elo: 1524.1 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.50 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Long Beach St

Record: 6-11 | Elo: 1376.4 (ranked 327 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.05 (ranked 292 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UC Davis

Record: 9-7 | Elo: 1486.4 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.60 (ranked 210 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UC Irvine

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1634.8 (ranked 48 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.58 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UC Riverside

Record: 6-11 | Elo: 1483.8 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.32 (ranked 324 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UC San Diego

Record: 13-4 | Elo: 1637.3 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.75 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UCSB

Record: 9-7 | Elo: 1498.5 (ranked 193 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.40 (ranked 223 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBWC
TagsBig West Big West Conference BWC

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