SEC Update: Week 10

SEC Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The SEC enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1710.0 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.58 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Arkansas

Record: 12-4 | Elo: 1648.2 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.98 (ranked 38 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Auburn

Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1707.5 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.55 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FTA Per Poss (Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Florida

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1729.4 (ranked 9 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.30 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Georgia

Record: 14-2 | Elo: 1635.6 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.04 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Kentucky

Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1629.6 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.51 (ranked 26 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

LSU

Record: 12-4 | Elo: 1545.9 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.69 (ranked 65 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Miss St

Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1602.0 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.42 (ranked 94 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Missouri

Record: 12-4 | Elo: 1592.8 (ranked 75 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.47 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oklahoma

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1592.4 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.07 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Ole Miss

Record: 9-7 | Elo: 1579.3 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.24 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Steals Per Poss (Steals Per Possession): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

South Carolina

Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1512.2 (ranked 164 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.95 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Tennessee

Record: 11-5 | Elo: 1694.9 (ranked 18 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.34 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Texas

Record: 9-6 | Elo: 1576.2 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.30 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Texas A&M

Record: 13-3 | Elo: 1664.3 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.44 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Vanderbilt

Record: 16-0 | Elo: 1675.6 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.53 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SEC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC
TagsSEC Southeastern Conference

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