Southern Update: Week 10

January 12, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Southern enters Week 10 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southern teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 05 – January 11, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): ETSU, Mercer, Samford, The Citadel, UNCG
Trending Down (Efficiency): Chattanooga, Furman, VMI

Team-by-Team Analysis

Chattanooga

Record: 7-10 | Elo: 1551.3 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.18 (ranked 293 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

ETSU

Record: 12-5 | Elo: 1544.5 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.19 (ranked 99 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Furman

Record: 12-5 | Elo: 1589.0 (ranked 81 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.37 (ranked 194 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Mercer

Record: 10-7 | Elo: 1484.7 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.72 (ranked 138 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Samford

Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1559.8 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.31 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

The Citadel

Record: 4-13 | Elo: 1258.8 (ranked 369 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -33.33 (ranked 360 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UNCG

Record: 6-11 | Elo: 1484.8 (ranked 212 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.94 (ranked 322 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

VMI

Record: 4-11 | Elo: 1366.5 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.36 (ranked 341 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

W Carolina

Record: 5-10 | Elo: 1408.1 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.93 (ranked 307 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Wofford

Record: 11-6 | Elo: 1544.9 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.93 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southern teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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