American Update: Week 11

American Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The American enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 9-9 | Elo: 1464.9 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.81 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

ECU

Record: 5-13 | Elo: 1420.5 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.46 (ranked 286 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

FAU

Record: 13-6 | Elo: 1610.0 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.43 (ranked 77 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Memphis

Record: 9-8 | Elo: 1639.3 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.10 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

North Texas

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1598.0 (ranked 71 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.62 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Rice

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1426.6 (ranked 277 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.18 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Temple

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1522.5 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.79 (ranked 111 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Tulane

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1542.8 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.14 (ranked 203 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Tulsa

Record: 15-3 | Elo: 1537.2 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.25 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UAB

Record: 12-7 | Elo: 1602.9 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.50 (ranked 133 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

USF

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1528.8 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.40 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UTSA

Record: 4-14 | Elo: 1357.0 (ranked 343 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.51 (ranked 354 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Wichita State

Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1537.5 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.12 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC
TagsAAC American American Athletic Conference American Conference

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