Mid-American Update: Week 11

Mid-American Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Mid-American enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 14-4 | Elo: 1653.3 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.34 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Ball State

Record: 5-13 | Elo: 1382.5 (ranked 326 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.81 (ranked 294 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Bowling Green

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1486.1 (ranked 210 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.90 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Buffalo

Record: 13-5 | Elo: 1452.1 (ranked 250 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.23 (ranked 114 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Cent Michigan

Record: 5-13 | Elo: 1402.3 (ranked 308 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.55 (ranked 287 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

E Michigan

Record: 9-10 | Elo: 1455.1 (ranked 249 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.58 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Kent State

Record: 14-4 | Elo: 1610.6 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.22 (ranked 169 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Miami (OH)

Record: 19-0 | Elo: 1651.6 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.70 (ranked 62 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

N Illinois

Record: 6-11 | Elo: 1338.2 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.98 (ranked 315 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Ohio

Record: 10-9 | Elo: 1500.2 (ranked 189 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.10 (ranked 210 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Toledo

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1533.6 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.19 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Fouls Per Poss (Fouls Per Possession): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UMass

Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1444.1 (ranked 257 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.17 (ranked 151 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

W Michigan

Record: 7-11 | Elo: 1416.6 (ranked 288 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.92 (ranked 257 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mid-American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC
TagsMAC Mid-American Mid-American Conference

Leave a Reply