Missouri Valley Update: Week 11

Missouri Valley Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Missouri Valley enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Belmont

Record: 17-3 | Elo: 1662.3 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.88 (ranked 45 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Bradley

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1629.0 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.56 (ranked 119 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Drake

Record: 7-10 | Elo: 1604.9 (ranked 66 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.69 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Evansville

Record: 5-14 | Elo: 1389.9 (ranked 315 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.30 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Illinois State

Record: 13-6 | Elo: 1562.7 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.69 (ranked 63 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Indiana State

Record: 9-10 | Elo: 1503.3 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.89 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Murray State

Record: 16-3 | Elo: 1597.6 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.45 (ranked 72 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Northern Iowa

Record: 12-7 | Elo: 1557.4 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.95 (ranked 98 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

S Illinois

Record: 8-11 | Elo: 1482.8 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.33 (ranked 147 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UIC

Record: 9-10 | Elo: 1478.8 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.17 (ranked 196 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FTA Per Poss (Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Valparaiso

Record: 9-10 | Elo: 1450.0 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.36 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Missouri Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMVC
TagsMissouri Valley Conference MVC

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