Big 12 Update: Week 11

Big 12 Update: Week 11

January 19, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big 12 enters Week 11 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 18-0 | Elo: 1769.9 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.61 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Arizona State

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1524.6 (ranked 146 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.93 (ranked 106 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

BYU

Record: 16-2 | Elo: 1720.2 (ranked 12 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.18 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Baylor

Record: 10-6 | Elo: 1621.1 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.34 (ranked 66 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Cincinnati

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1559.2 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.53 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Colorado

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1559.8 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.93 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Houston

Record: 17-1 | Elo: 1826.0 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.61 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Iowa State

Record: 16-2 | Elo: 1715.4 (ranked 13 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.20 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Kansas

Record: 13-5 | Elo: 1668.3 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.63 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Kansas State

Record: 9-9 | Elo: 1528.8 (ranked 141 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.32 (ranked 96 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Oklahoma State

Record: 14-4 | Elo: 1586.2 (ranked 81 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.07 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

TCU

Record: 11-7 | Elo: 1562.4 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.12 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Texas Tech

Record: 14-4 | Elo: 1711.8 (ranked 15 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.42 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UCF

Record: 14-3 | Elo: 1620.6 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.50 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Utah

Record: 9-9 | Elo: 1511.3 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.72 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Virginia

Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1570.2 (ranked 93 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.37 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big 12 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12
TagsB12 Big 12 Big 12 Conference

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