Ohio Valley Update: Week 12

Ohio Valley Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

Ohio Valley Teams Display Varied Trends in Week 12

As we enter Week 12 of the Ohio Valley Conference season, teams are showcasing distinct trends in their performances. By analyzing Shooting Efficiency Momentum (SEM), a momentum indicator that measures shooting efficiency over time, we can identify which teams are on the rise and which ones need to reassess their strategies.

Offensive Trends Take Center Stage

Two teams stand out for their improving offenses: E Illinois and Morehead State. E Illinois’ performance in rebounding has seen a significant boost, with an upward trend in Rebounding Percentage (RBP), indicating a substantial improvement in their ability to secure rebounds on offense (Season Avg: 34.1%). This improvement is substantial enough to be considered strongly trending up. Meanwhile, Morehead State’s offense is gaining momentum, with both Shooting Efficiency and Rebounding Percentage showing strong upward trends.

In contrast, UT Martin’s offense has seen a notable decline in performance. Their Turnovers have increased significantly (Season Avg: 16.5), suggesting that the team may be struggling to maintain possession on the court. Conversely, Tennessee St is bucking this trend by reducing their turnover rate, indicating an improvement in ball control.

Defensive Trends Paint a Mixed Picture

While E Illinois’ offense is surging, their defense has seen a decline in performance. Opponent Shooting Efficiency (OSE) and Defensive Rebounding Percentage (DRP) both show downward trends, suggesting that the team’s defensive prowess may be waning.

Morehead State’s defense is also experiencing difficulties. Despite their strong offense, they are struggling to contain opponents on the boards, with a significant decline in DRP (Season Avg: 74.9).

SIUE stands out as an exception among the defensive trends, however. Their OSE has seen a marked improvement, indicating that their defense is getting stronger at preventing opponents from scoring. However, their own rebounding has declined, suggesting they may be struggling to maintain possession.

Conclusion

The Ohio Valley Conference’s Week 12 trends reveal a diverse landscape of team performances. While E Illinois and Morehead State are riding high with improving offenses, UT Martin’s struggles on the court and SIUE’s mixed defensive performance demand attention. By examining these SEM indicators, we can better understand which teams are poised for success and which ones need to reassess their strategies.

Key Takeaways

  • E Illinois’ offense is trending up strongly due to improved rebounding.
  • Morehead State’s offense is on the rise with both shooting efficiency and rebounding improving.
  • UT Martin’s turnovers have increased, indicating a potential decline in performance.
  • Tennessee St has reduced turnover rate, suggesting improvement in ball control.
  • E Illinois’ defense is showing signs of decline with downward trends in opponent shooting efficiency and defensive rebounding.
  • Morehead State and SIUE are experiencing difficulties on the defensive end.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Ohio Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Illinois

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1393.0 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.87 (ranked 307 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Lindenwood

Record: 12-9 | Elo: 1433.4 (ranked 270 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.35 (ranked 239 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Little Rock

Record: 8-11 | Elo: 1469.4 (ranked 231 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.17 (ranked 302 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Morehead State

Record: 11-10 | Elo: 1471.5 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.82 (ranked 298 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

SE Missouri St

Record: 11-10 | Elo: 1471.6 (ranked 228 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.03 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

SIUE

Record: 13-8 | Elo: 1506.4 (ranked 174 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.09 (ranked 210 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Southern Indiana

Record: 5-15 | Elo: 1305.5 (ranked 363 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.72 (ranked 312 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Tenn Tech

Record: 7-14 | Elo: 1358.9 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.17 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Tennessee St

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1517.7 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.32 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

UT Martin

Record: 15-5 | Elo: 1506.4 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.04 (ranked 200 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

W Illinois

Record: 4-17 | Elo: 1320.0 (ranked 360 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -30.63 (ranked 359 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Ohio Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Ohio Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Ohio Valley Teams Show Improvement and Decline in Key Categories

As Week 12 comes to a close, the Ohio Valley Conference teams have demonstrated notable trends in key offensive and defensive categories. By analyzing these MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) momentum indicators, which measure the difference between two moving averages of a security’s price, we can identify which teams are genuinely improving their performance and which are riding unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends

Eastern Illinois has shown significant improvement in its rebounding percentage, with an upward trend in its shooting percentage over the past five weeks (Strength: Strongly). This uptick in performance bodes well for the team’s overall offense. Meanwhile, Morehead State has seen substantial increases in both its shooting percentage and rebounding percentage, also trending strongly upwards.

In contrast, UT Martin has experienced a notable decline in its turnover rate, with an upward trend indicating more efficient playmaking.

Defensive Trends

On the defensive side, Eastern Illinois has demonstrated improvement in limiting opponents’ shooting percentages, with a downward trend in their opponents’ shooting percentage over the past five weeks (Strength: Strongly). This suggests that the team is becoming more effective at preventing opponents from scoring efficiently.

However, Eastern Illinois and Morehead State have both seen downturns in their defensive rebounding percentages. This may indicate vulnerabilities in securing second-chance opportunities for themselves.

Southern Indiana has also shown improvement in limiting opponents’ shooting percentages, with a downward trend in their opponents’ three-point shooting percentage over the past five weeks (Strength: Strongly).

By examining these trends, we can gain insight into which teams are poised to continue improving and which may be due for regression. As the season progresses, it will be essential to monitor these developments closely.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryOVC
TagsOhio Valley Ohio Valley Conference OVC

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