Sun Belt Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

Sun Belt Teams Show Diverse Performance Trends

As the Sun Belt Conference enters Week 12, teams are displaying varied trends in their performance. Using metrics like Shooting Efficiency Momentum and Defensive Rebound Percentage to analyze these trends, we identify areas where teams excel and others that struggle.

Offensive Trends

Arkansas State: The team’s turnover rate is a major concern, with a worsening trend of 0.19 per game. This increase in turnovers could be detrimental to their scoring ability.
Coastal Carolina (C. Carolina): In contrast, C. Carolina has seen an improvement in shooting efficiency momentum, with a season average trending upwards strongly.
Georgia State and Ga Southern: These teams are experiencing declining trends in terms of offensive rebounding percentage (Off Reb Pct), which may hinder their scoring opportunities.

Defensive Trends

Appalachian St: The Mountaineers’ defensive rebounding percentage (Def Reb Pct) is trending upwards strongly, indicating improved team defense.
Arkansas State: Conversely, Arkansas State’s opponent shooting average of 0.52 is increasing, and they’re allowing fewer turnovers on the opposing end.

Trend Insights

The data suggests that teams are experiencing mixed results in terms of momentum. While some teams, like Appalachian St and C. Carolina, are showing improvement, others like Arkansas State and Ga Southern are struggling with certain metrics. As we head into Week 12, these trends will likely play a significant role in determining the outcome of games.

This analysis provides an in-depth look at the performance trends within the Sun Belt Conference, highlighting areas where teams need to improve and those that are excelling.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Appalachian St, Arkansas State, C. Carolina, Georgia State, Louisiana
Trending Down (Efficiency): Ga Southern, South Alabama, Texas State, UL Monroe, Southern Miss

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1513.1 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.60 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Arkansas State

Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1583.9 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.04 (ranked 194 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

C. Carolina

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1448.9 (ranked 253 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.40 (ranked 215 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Ga Southern

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1485.7 (ranked 205 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.45 (ranked 201 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Georgia State

Record: 9-12 | Elo: 1452.0 (ranked 247 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.54 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

James Madison

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1511.7 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.24 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Louisiana

Record: 5-16 | Elo: 1398.8 (ranked 309 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.59 (ranked 333 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Marshall

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1534.8 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.26 (ranked 139 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Old Dominion

Record: 6-15 | Elo: 1401.7 (ranked 303 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.15 (ranked 222 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

South Alabama

Record: 13-6 | Elo: 1570.6 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.81 (ranked 178 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Southern Miss

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1430.1 (ranked 275 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.50 (ranked 233 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Texas State

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1464.1 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.65 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Troy

Record: 15-6 | Elo: 1622.2 (ranked 56 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.30 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UL Monroe

Record: 3-18 | Elo: 1261.3 (ranked 369 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.58 (ranked 350 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Sun Belt Analysis Wrap-Up: Week 12

As the Sun Belt season nears its conclusion, teams are beginning to showcase their strengths and weaknesses through key trends in offense and defense. By examining these statistics, we can gain insight into which squads are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Watch

Arkansas State’s turnover problem is intensifying, with a significant increase in turnover rate (Season Avg: 0.19) that spells trouble for their scoring efficiency.
Coastal Carolina is bucking the trend by significantly improving their shooting percentages (Season Avg: 0.48), indicating a consistent threat from beyond the arc.

Defensive Trends to Follow

Appalachian State is bolstering its defense with an upward trend in defensive rebound percentage (Season Avg: 0.734), showcasing a strong capacity to secure possessions and limit opponents’ scoring opportunities.
Arkansas State’s porous defense continues to be exploited by their opponents, as evidenced by worsening opponent shooting percentages (Season Avg: 0.52) and turnover rates (Season Avg: 0.141).
By examining the Momentum Indicator (magnitude) of defensive rebound percentage, we can see that Appalachian State is outperforming its season average, while Arkansas State is trending downward.

These trends paint a picture of which teams are poised for continued success or struggling with unsustainable momentum. As we move forward into the season’s final stretch, it will be crucial for coaches and analysts to closely monitor these statistics to inform their strategies and predictions.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference