Atlantic Sun Update: Week 13

Atlantic Sun Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic Sun enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 15-6 | Elo: 1527.6 (ranked 146 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.96 (ranked 171 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Bellarmine

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1358.8 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.99 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1422.8 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.28 (ranked 217 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

E Kentucky

Record: 7-16 | Elo: 1424.3 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.23 (ranked 286 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

FGCU

Record: 10-13 | Elo: 1465.5 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.17 (ranked 261 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Jacksonville

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1441.2 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.49 (ranked 316 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Lipscomb

Record: 15-8 | Elo: 1581.5 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.13 (ranked 189 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

North Alabama

Record: 7-13 | Elo: 1463.0 (ranked 233 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.13 (ranked 338 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

North Florida

Record: 5-18 | Elo: 1361.8 (ranked 339 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.58 (ranked 355 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Queens University

Record: 12-11 | Elo: 1500.9 (ranked 184 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.55 (ranked 207 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Stetson

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1373.1 (ranked 330 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.53 (ranked 341 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

West Georgia

Record: 10-12 | Elo: 1384.3 (ranked 321 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.55 (ranked 324 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic Sun teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryASUN
TagsASUN Atlantic Sun Atlantic Sun Conference

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