Big Ten Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big Ten enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Ten teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 26 – February 01, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota
Trending Down (Efficiency): Maryland, Michigan, Northwestern, Ohio State, Rutgers

Team-by-Team Analysis

Illinois

Record: 19-3 | Elo: 1731.8 (ranked 11 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.31 (ranked 9 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Indiana

Record: 15-7 | Elo: 1627.0 (ranked 52 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.74 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Iowa

Record: 16-5 | Elo: 1628.4 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.52 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Maryland

Record: 8-13 | Elo: 1562.7 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.62 (ranked 166 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Michigan

Record: 20-1 | Elo: 1756.1 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +40.87 (ranked 2 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Michigan State

Record: 19-3 | Elo: 1748.2 (ranked 8 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.18 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Minnesota

Record: 10-12 | Elo: 1495.2 (ranked 192 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.38 (ranked 76 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Nebraska

Record: 20-2 | Elo: 1695.3 (ranked 22 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.10 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Northwestern

Record: 10-12 | Elo: 1515.5 (ranked 162 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.35 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Ohio State

Record: 14-7 | Elo: 1599.9 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.97 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Oregon

Record: 8-14 | Elo: 1547.7 (ranked 115 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.14 (ranked 131 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Penn State

Record: 10-12 | Elo: 1497.7 (ranked 188 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.02 (ranked 132 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Purdue

Record: 18-4 | Elo: 1735.3 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +34.96 (ranked 6 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Rutgers

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1494.4 (ranked 193 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.57 (ranked 137 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UCLA

Record: 15-7 | Elo: 1638.2 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.98 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

USC

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1600.4 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.16 (ranked 55 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Washington

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1535.9 (ranked 132 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.29 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Wisconsin

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1670.2 (ranked 34 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.79 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Ten teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Ten teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB1G

TagsB1G Big 10 Big 10 Conference