Big South Update: Week 13

Big South Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big South enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charleston So

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1389.4 (ranked 317 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.97 (ranked 228 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Gardner-Webb

Record: 3-20 | Elo: 1335.8 (ranked 356 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -39.78 (ranked 364 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

High Point

Record: 20-4 | Elo: 1651.8 (ranked 41 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.30 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Longwood

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1458.3 (ranked 239 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.61 (ranked 264 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Presbyterian

Record: 11-13 | Elo: 1407.0 (ranked 296 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.99 (ranked 268 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Radford

Record: 13-11 | Elo: 1495.4 (ranked 191 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.44 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UNC Asheville

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1488.4 (ranked 203 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.58 (ranked 238 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

USC Upstate

Record: 10-13 | Elo: 1357.8 (ranked 343 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.14 (ranked 304 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Winthrop

Record: 16-8 | Elo: 1572.4 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.10 (ranked 181 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big South teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSOU
TagsBig South Big South Conference BSOU

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