Big West Update: Week 13

Big West Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big West enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

CSU Bakersfield

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1376.8 (ranked 325 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.40 (ranked 323 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

CSU Fullerton

Record: 10-13 | Elo: 1404.6 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.69 (ranked 225 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

CSU Northridge

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1528.0 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.00 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Cal Poly

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1420.4 (ranked 283 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.76 (ranked 289 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Hawai’i

Record: 16-5 | Elo: 1541.2 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.26 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Long Beach St

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1372.0 (ranked 332 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.05 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UC Davis

Record: 13-9 | Elo: 1502.9 (ranked 181 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.11 (ranked 213 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UC Irvine

Record: 15-7 | Elo: 1649.8 (ranked 43 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.92 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UC Riverside

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1454.3 (ranked 247 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.06 (ranked 321 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UC San Diego

Record: 15-8 | Elo: 1600.1 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.12 (ranked 151 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UCSB

Record: 15-7 | Elo: 1550.0 (ranked 113 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.01 (ranked 159 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBWC
TagsBig West Big West Conference BWC

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