Coastal Update: Week 13

Coastal Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Coastal enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Colonial teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Campbell

Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1455.5 (ranked 244 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.13 (ranked 232 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Charleston

Record: 15-8 | Elo: 1620.7 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.10 (ranked 188 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Drexel

Record: 12-11 | Elo: 1506.6 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.01 (ranked 172 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Elon

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1475.4 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.23 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Hampton

Record: 10-13 | Elo: 1438.0 (ranked 263 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.85 (ranked 266 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Hofstra

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1531.4 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.77 (ranked 95 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Monmouth

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1473.3 (ranked 218 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.55 (ranked 187 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

NC A&T

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1369.8 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.46 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Northeastern

Record: 6-15 | Elo: 1428.8 (ranked 276 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.14 (ranked 241 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Stony Brook

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1481.9 (ranked 210 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.78 (ranked 239 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Towson

Record: 13-11 | Elo: 1559.1 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.88 (ranked 197 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UNC Wilmington

Record: 19-3 | Elo: 1671.8 (ranked 30 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.63 (ranked 96 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

William & Mary

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1509.5 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.94 (ranked 145 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Colonial teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCAA
TagsCAA Coastal Coastal Athletic Association Colonial Colonial Athletic Association

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