Ivy Update: Week 13

Ivy Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Ivy enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Ivy teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brown

Record: 7-13 | Elo: 1426.1 (ranked 277 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.56 (ranked 256 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Columbia

Record: 14-7 | Elo: 1482.1 (ranked 209 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.76 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Cornell

Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1541.6 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.09 (ranked 158 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Dartmouth

Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1470.8 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.15 (ranked 214 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Harvard

Record: 12-9 | Elo: 1524.1 (ranked 152 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.65 (ranked 135 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Penn

Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1458.6 (ranked 238 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.06 (ranked 153 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Princeton

Record: 8-14 | Elo: 1519.0 (ranked 159 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.17 (ranked 182 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Yale

Record: 16-4 | Elo: 1667.8 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.49 (ranked 64 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Ivy teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Ivy teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Ivy teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryIVY
TagsIVY Ivy League

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