Patriot League Update: Week 13

Patriot League Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Patriot League enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Patriot League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

American

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1495.4 (ranked 190 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.42 (ranked 219 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Army

Record: 10-13 | Elo: 1412.7 (ranked 290 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.81 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Boston U

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1398.8 (ranked 308 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.43 (ranked 254 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Bucknell

Record: 7-16 | Elo: 1413.0 (ranked 289 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.08 (ranked 303 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Colgate

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1506.0 (ranked 176 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.03 (ranked 160 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Holy Cross

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1361.5 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.63 (ranked 305 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Lafayette

Record: 7-15 | Elo: 1368.0 (ranked 337 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.19 (ranked 270 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Lehigh

Record: 10-13 | Elo: 1408.0 (ranked 294 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.37 (ranked 274 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Loyola (MD)

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1358.2 (ranked 342 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.61 (ranked 298 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Navy

Record: 17-6 | Elo: 1527.8 (ranked 145 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.84 (ranked 102 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Patriot League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryPAT
TagsPAT Patriot Patriot League

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