SEC Update: Week 13

SEC Update: Week 13

February 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

The SEC enters Week 13 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 14-7 | Elo: 1712.7 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.39 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Arkansas

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1652.2 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.58 (ranked 34 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Auburn

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1720.6 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.91 (ranked 41 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Florida

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1751.2 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.69 (ranked 13 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Georgia

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1609.9 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.04 (ranked 30 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Kentucky

Record: 15-7 | Elo: 1670.9 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.89 (ranked 26 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

LSU

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1537.1 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.57 (ranked 63 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Miss St

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1568.8 (ranked 93 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.96 (ranked 101 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Missouri

Record: 15-7 | Elo: 1591.8 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.24 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Oklahoma

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1536.5 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.22 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Ole Miss

Record: 11-10 | Elo: 1585.1 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.47 (ranked 79 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

South Carolina

Record: 11-11 | Elo: 1491.7 (ranked 197 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.44 (ranked 106 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Tennessee

Record: 15-6 | Elo: 1719.3 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.58 (ranked 21 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Texas

Record: 12-9 | Elo: 1587.5 (ranked 76 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.13 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Texas A&M

Record: 17-4 | Elo: 1688.7 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.75 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Vanderbilt

Record: 19-3 | Elo: 1670.8 (ranked 33 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.03 (ranked 18 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SEC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC
TagsSEC Southeastern Conference

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