Week 14 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets
February 9, 2026Week 14: February 02 – February 09, 2026
This week saw 10 upsets shake up the landscape, with an average margin of victory of just 4.7 points. The action was incredibly competitive, featuring 5 games decided by 5 points or less and 0 blowouts (15+ points). The lowest-ranked team to secure a win was #273 South Dakota.
These results highlight the parity in college basketball, where any team can win on any given night. Below is the countdown of the week’s most significant upsets based on our Upset Rating model.
#10: South Dakota @ South Dakota St
Final Score: South Dakota 68, South Dakota St 67
Date: February 07, 2026
Venue: South Dakota @ South Dakota St
Favorite: South Dakota St (Ranked #198)
Underdog: South Dakota (Ranked #273)
Predicted Score: South Dakota St 86.8 – 79.2 (7.6 points)
Upset Rating: 11.1
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: South Dakota 15-31 (48%), South Dakota St 20-44 (45%)
#9: Loyola Mary @ San Francisco
Final Score: Loyola Mary 84, San Francisco 75
Date: February 04, 2026
Venue: Loyola Mary @ San Francisco
Favorite: San Francisco (Ranked #118)
Underdog: Loyola Mary (Ranked #177)
Predicted Score: San Francisco 78.6 – 69.1 (9.5 points)
Upset Rating: 13.4
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: Loyola Mary 19-36 (53%), San Francisco 10-29 (34%)
- Foul trouble: San Francisco had 1 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Three-point shooting: Loyola Mary 10-24 (42%), San Francisco 6-21 (29%)
#8: William & Mary @ UNC Wilmington
Final Score: William & Mary 85, UNC Wilmington 78
Date: February 05, 2026
Venue: William & Mary @ UNC Wilmington
Favorite: UNC Wilmington (Ranked #104)
Underdog: William & Mary (Ranked #146)
Predicted Score: UNC Wilmington 82.8 – 73.1 (9.8 points)
Upset Rating: 14.5
Key Factors:
- Bench scoring: William & Mary 46 points, UNC Wilmington 13 points (33-point advantage)
- Foul trouble: UNC Wilmington had 2 players with 4+ fouls
- Free throws: William & Mary 18-24 (75%), UNC Wilmington 9-16 (56%)
- Three-point shooting: William & Mary 11-23 (48%), UNC Wilmington 11-24 (46%)
#7: North Texas @ Rice
Final Score: Rice 86, North Texas 83
Date: February 04, 2026
Venue: North Texas @ Rice
Favorite: North Texas (Ranked #154)
Underdog: Rice (Ranked #227)
Predicted Score: North Texas 75.2 – 64.9 (10.3 points)
Upset Rating: 14.7
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: North Texas had 4 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Rebounding: Rice 52, North Texas 36 (16-rebound advantage, 23 offensive)
- Three-point shooting: Rice 10-32 (31%), North Texas 3-18 (17%)
#6: Seattle @ Portland
Final Score: Portland 54, Seattle 53
Date: February 07, 2026
Venue: Seattle @ Portland
Favorite: Seattle (Ranked #134)
Underdog: Portland (Ranked #229)
Predicted Score: Seattle 80.0 – 70.6 (9.5 points)
Upset Rating: 14.8
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Seattle had 2 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Three-point shooting: Portland 4-17 (24%), Seattle 8-29 (28%)
#5: UNLV @ Fresno State
Final Score: Fresno State 98, UNLV 96
Date: February 03, 2026
Venue: UNLV @ Fresno State
Favorite: UNLV (Ranked #132)
Underdog: Fresno State (Ranked #176)
Predicted Score: UNLV 80.8 – 69.1 (11.7 points)
Upset Rating: 15.7
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: UNLV had 6 players with 4+ fouls, 5 fouled out
- Three-point shooting: Fresno State 8-15 (53%), UNLV 9-23 (39%)
- Free throws: Fresno State 32-44 (73%), UNLV 25-36 (69%)
#4: Denver @ North Dakota St
Final Score: Denver 78, North Dakota St 71
Date: February 05, 2026
Venue: Denver @ North Dakota St
Favorite: North Dakota St (Ranked #129)
Underdog: Denver (Ranked #254)
Predicted Score: North Dakota St 83.0 – 71.3 (11.7 points)
Upset Rating: 21.0
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: Denver 22-33 (67%), North Dakota St 19-42 (45%)
#3: BYU @ Oklahoma State
Final Score: Oklahoma State 99, BYU 92
Date: February 04, 2026
Venue: BYU @ Oklahoma State
Favorite: BYU (Ranked #22)
Underdog: Oklahoma State (Ranked #105)
Predicted Score: BYU 84.4 – 72.7 (11.7 points)
Upset Rating: 22.1
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: BYU had 4 players with 4+ fouls
- Bench scoring: Oklahoma State 28 points, BYU 9 points (19-point advantage)
- Free throws: Oklahoma State 22-34 (65%), BYU 13-17 (76%)
- Two-point shooting: Oklahoma State 28-43 (65%), BYU 20-36 (56%)
#2: Michigan State @ Minnesota
Final Score: Minnesota 76, Michigan State 73
Date: February 04, 2026
Venue: Michigan State @ Minnesota
Favorite: Michigan State (Ranked #15)
Underdog: Minnesota (Ranked #72)
Predicted Score: Michigan State 80.4 – 66.8 (13.6 points)
Upset Rating: 26.2
Key Factors:
- Free throws: Minnesota 22-31 (71%), Michigan State 12-17 (71%)
- Three-point shooting: Minnesota 10-21 (48%), Michigan State 9-24 (38%)
#1: Gonzaga @ Portland
Final Score: Portland 87, Gonzaga 80
Date: February 04, 2026
Venue: Gonzaga @ Portland
Favorite: Gonzaga (Ranked #7)
Underdog: Portland (Ranked #229)
Predicted Score: Gonzaga 93.0 – 65.9 (27.1 points)
Upset Rating: 62.6
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: Portland 25-38 (66%), Gonzaga 16-35 (46%)
- Foul trouble: Gonzaga had 2 players with 4+ fouls
- Three-point shooting: Portland 7-16 (44%), Gonzaga 10-30 (33%)
Week 14 Summary
Total Upsets: 10
Non-D1 Upsets: 0
D1 vs D1 Upsets: 10
Tight Margins and Surprising Upsets Dominate College Basketball
The past week in college basketball has seen a staggering number of close games decided by just a few points versus stronger competition. According to our data, there were 10 upsets on the board, with no game being decided by more than 15 points.
A closer look at the numbers reveals that teams are extremely evenly matched, with an average margin of victory of 4.7 points versus weaker competition. This trend is reflected in the fact that five games went down to the wire, with margins of victory of 5 points or less. The number of close games highlights the competitiveness of college basketball.
One of the most notable upsets was South Dakota’s win over South Dakota St, with a margin of victory of just one point versus stronger competition. This marked a significant upset, as South Dakota is considered a weaker team in this matchup. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s defeat of Michigan State had an impressive performance, securing a narrow 5-point victory.
Interestingly, there were no games where the winning margin was greater than 15 points versus stronger competition. This emphasizes the evenness of competition across the board. With so many close games and surprising upsets, it’s clear that college basketball has reached levels of parity.
The dominance of close games has left coaches scrambling to adjust their strategies, while analysts are re-evaluating their predictions. It will be fascinating to see how teams adapt to these new realities as the season unfolds.
