MAAC Update: Week 14

MAAC Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The MAAC enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 8-17 | Elo: 1332.5 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.97 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Fairfield

Record: 16-10 | Elo: 1504.0 (ranked 178 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.56 (ranked 214 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Iona

Record: 14-11 | Elo: 1512.0 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.60 (ranked 185 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Manhattan

Record: 10-16 | Elo: 1414.0 (ranked 292 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.18 (ranked 310 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Marist

Record: 16-8 | Elo: 1555.7 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.66 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Merrimack

Record: 16-9 | Elo: 1593.4 (ranked 76 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.86 (ranked 169 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 11-15 | Elo: 1493.5 (ranked 191 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.35 (ranked 245 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Niagara

Record: 6-18 | Elo: 1355.3 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.63 (ranked 306 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Quinnipiac

Record: 17-9 | Elo: 1574.7 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.94 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Rider

Record: 3-20 | Elo: 1364.4 (ranked 336 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.88 (ranked 352 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Sacred Heart

Record: 10-16 | Elo: 1435.5 (ranked 268 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.55 (ranked 257 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Siena

Record: 17-8 | Elo: 1520.8 (ranked 151 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.21 (ranked 117 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

St Peter’s

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1524.5 (ranked 146 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.43 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As MAAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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