Mid-American Update: Week 14

Mid-American Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Mid-American enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 19-5 | Elo: 1675.0 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.86 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Ball State

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1401.0 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.63 (ranked 299 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Bowling Green

Record: 14-10 | Elo: 1467.1 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.01 (ranked 124 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Buffalo

Record: 14-10 | Elo: 1424.9 (ranked 277 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.96 (ranked 139 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Cent Michigan

Record: 7-17 | Elo: 1389.1 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.91 (ranked 261 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

E Michigan

Record: 9-15 | Elo: 1420.5 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.95 (ranked 171 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Kent State

Record: 17-7 | Elo: 1604.7 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.41 (ranked 174 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Miami (OH)

Record: 24-0 | Elo: 1683.6 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.36 (ranked 52 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

N Illinois

Record: 8-14 | Elo: 1351.9 (ranked 347 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.17 (ranked 288 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Ohio

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1497.0 (ranked 187 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.91 (ranked 189 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Toledo

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1512.5 (ranked 165 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.74 (ranked 164 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UMass

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1461.2 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.92 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

W Michigan

Record: 8-15 | Elo: 1393.2 (ranked 308 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.99 (ranked 286 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mid-American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC
TagsMAC Mid-American Mid-American Conference

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