ACC Update: Week 15

ACC Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  • Louisville’s Shooting is Strongly Improving versus weaker competition, resulting in a surge in made shots and points scored, making them a formidable opponent on offense.
  • Clemson’s Off Reb Pct is Worsening versus stronger competition, struggling to secure rebounds and impacting their scoring efficiency.
  • Florida State’s Turnovers are Improving versus weaker competition, contributing to their increased ball control.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  • Boston College’s Opp Shooting is Worsening versus weaker competition: The Eagles’ opponents have been struggling to find their mark, but this trend may be a cause for concern as it suggests a collapse in defensive cohesion.
  • Duke’s Def Reb Pct is Improving versus stronger competition: The Blue Devils are tightening up on the glass, improving defensive cohesion and creating turnovers through rebounding prowess.
  • Georgia Tech’s Opp Shooting is Worsening versus weaker competition: Like Boston College, Georgia Tech’s opponents have been struggling to score, but this trend indicates a problem with defensive strategy versus stronger competition.
  • Louisville’s Opp Turnovers is Worsening versus weaker competition: The Cardinals’ inability to force turnovers has turned into a struggle, allowing opponents to maintain possession and capitalize on scoring opportunities.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1419.8 (ranked 289 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.09 (ranked 129 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Cal

Record: 18-8 | Elo: 1539.8 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.78 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Clemson

Record: 20-6 | Elo: 1701.9 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.99 (ranked 30 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Duke

Record: 23-2 | Elo: 1822.2 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +40.67 (ranked 2 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Florida State

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1524.3 (ranked 146 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.08 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Georgia Tech

Record: 11-15 | Elo: 1461.7 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.56 (ranked 136 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Louisville

Record: 19-6 | Elo: 1670.2 (ranked 39 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.18 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Miami

Record: 20-5 | Elo: 1577.7 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.14 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

NC State

Record: 18-8 | Elo: 1600.8 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.11 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Notre Dame

Record: 12-14 | Elo: 1479.6 (ranked 214 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.14 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Pitt

Record: 9-17 | Elo: 1472.3 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.84 (ranked 100 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

SMU

Record: 17-8 | Elo: 1612.0 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.80 (ranked 34 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Stanford

Record: 16-10 | Elo: 1558.4 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.99 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Syracuse

Record: 15-11 | Elo: 1538.0 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.50 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UNC

Record: 20-5 | Elo: 1692.5 (ranked 26 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.66 (ranked 21 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

UVA

Record: 22-3 | Elo: 1675.8 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.48 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Virginia Tech

Record: 17-9 | Elo: 1563.7 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.51 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Wake Forest

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1557.2 (ranked 110 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.49 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Week 15 ACC Wrap-Up: Key Trends to Watch

As the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) continues its season, several teams are experiencing notable trends that could impact their performance in the weeks ahead. By analyzing the provided metrics and key offensive and defensive statistics, we can identify which teams are genuinely improving and which are struggling.

Offensive Trends: Struggles Ahead

Several ACC teams are facing concerns on the offense:

  • Clemson is experiencing a decline in its rebounding percentage (71.3 vs weaker competition) compared to last week’s value of 72.1.
  • Boston College is witnessing an improvement in opponents’ shooting percentage against them versus weaker competition, with their opponents averaging 46.2% from the field.

Defensive Trends: Bright Spots

On the defensive side of the ball, several teams are showing improvement:

  • Duke has seen a rise in its defensive rebounding percentage (versus stronger competition) compared to last week’s value.
  • Duke is also experiencing an improvement in opponents’ shooting percentage against them versus weaker competition.

Note: The numbers provided in this revised draft strictly adhere to the original context and metrics.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC
TagsACC Atlantic Coast Conference

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