Missouri Valley Update: Week 16
February 24, 2026Strongest Offensive Trends
- Evansville, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.033 – Evansville’s struggles on offense are largely due to their inability to secure possession, resulting in a struggle to maintain momentum and ultimately contributing to their scoring woes.
- Northern Iowa, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Northern Iowa’s shooting has been showing signs of improvement this season, with their three-point accuracy contributing to their overall performance as they consistently make shots from beyond the arc.
- Belmont, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Belmont’s persistent issue on the glass throughout the season has resulted in an inability to secure second-chance scoring opportunities, putting additional pressure on its offense due to limited scoring output.
- UIC, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – UIC’s shooting has shown significant consistency throughout the season, allowing for a more stabilized rhythm in their gameplay despite some challenges with defensive adjustments against teams that have aggressively guarded their three-point line.
- Illinois State, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.01 – Illinois State’s high turnover rate significantly hampers their offense, contributing to difficulties in executing plays effectively due to the negative impact of turnovers on their ability to execute plays smoothly.
Strongest Defensive Trends
- Evansville, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Evansville’s defense has been plagued by an inability to secure rebounds consistently.
- Evansville, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Evansville’s defense poses a significant challenge as opponents struggle with stifled shooting, ultimately hindering their performance against them.
- Illinois State, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Illinois State struggles with defensive rebounding, a problem that results in opponents maintaining a strong presence on the glass and capitalizing on additional scoring opportunities, hindering the team’s ability to control the pace of the game due to their 65.4 Def Reb Pct.
- Drake, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Drake’s inability to consistently stop opponents from scoring has resulted in a significant number of turnovers from its own players, creating problems that have persisted throughout the season.
- Illinois State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Illinois State’s inability to force turnovers on offense has resulted in their defensive struggles, preventing them from capitalizing on momentum and creating scoring opportunities.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Missouri Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: February 16 – February 22, 2026
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Bradley, Evansville, Northern Iowa, Valparaiso, Belmont
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Drake, Illinois State, Indiana State, S Illinois, Murray State
Team-by-Team Analysis
Belmont
Record: 25-4 | Elo: 1700.0 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.23 (ranked 46 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Bradley
Record: 19-10 | Elo: 1636.0 (ranked 48 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.88 (ranked 106 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Drake
Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1545.0 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.42 (ranked 196 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Evansville
Record: 6-22 | Elo: 1360.5 (ranked 333 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.12 (ranked 287 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Illinois State
Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1557.0 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.85 (ranked 83 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Indiana State
Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1438.2 (ranked 264 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.36 (ranked 201 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Murray State
Record: 20-10 | Elo: 1563.4 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.45 (ranked 102 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Northern Iowa
Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1572.1 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.73 (ranked 79 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
S Illinois
Record: 14-15 | Elo: 1514.9 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.61 (ranked 118 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
UIC
Record: 16-13 | Elo: 1522.7 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.27 (ranked 121 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Valparaiso
Record: 16-13 | Elo: 1508.9 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.62 (ranked 142 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Missouri Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
Missouri Valley Review: Trends Indicate Areas of Concern for Contenders
As the Missouri Valley Conference enters its final stretch, several teams are exhibiting notable trends that may impact their chances of success in the postseason. By examining the key offensive and defensive metrics, we can identify areas where teams are improving or struggling.
Evansville is experiencing a decline in rebounding percentage (0.272), which is a problem as they struggle to secure rebounds on both ends of the court. Additionally, Drake has seen an opponent turnover rate of 0.139, suggesting that their ability to disrupt opposing offenses and create scoring opportunities through turnovers may be impacted.
Belmont’s rebounding percentage (0.205) is also a concern, indicating that opponents are gaining control of the boards and limiting Belmont’s scoring opportunities.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
