America East Update: Week 17

America East Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Binghamton, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.03 – Binghamton’s consistent shooting has led to a well-rounded offense with multiple players contributing from different areas, showcasing their ability to capitalize on various scoring threats.
  2. Binghamton, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – The Binghamton team’s struggles on offense stem from their inability to secure rebounds, contributing to their overall performance decline.
  3. Albany, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Albany’s inconsistent approach to shot selection, characterized by a failure to establish a reliable rhythm in taking shots, has been an issue, but their recent improvement suggests they’re on the right path.
  4. Maine, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Maine’s improved performance can be attributed to their reduced tendency to make mistakes on offense, leading to a notable increase in team efficiency.
  5. Albany, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.009 – Albany’s turnover issue has become a pressing problem, directly affecting their ability to maintain possession on the court and secure rebounds, particularly in transition situations where they often struggle to secure defensive boards and lose valuable possessions.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Maine, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.024 – Maine’s stifling defensive rebounding has allowed them to dictate pace and control possession, posing a significant problem for opponents on offense as they struggle to secure their own rebounds.
  2. UMass Lowell, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.023 – UMass Lowell has bolstered its defensive performance by securing a higher proportion of rebounds, resulting in significant trouble for its opponents to score on.
  3. UMBC, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – UMBC’s defense is struggling to contain opponents’ shooting from beyond the arc, indicating that their strategies are beginning to falter.
  4. Maine, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – Maine’s defense has allowed an increased number of goals against, suggesting a notable weakness as it approaches the end of the regular season in the America East conference.
  5. UNH, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – The University of New Hampshire’s defense has proven challenging for opponents, resulting in an uphill battle offensively.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for America East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Albany

Record: 11-19 | Elo: 1401.3 (ranked 303 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.12 (ranked 281 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Binghamton

Record: 6-23 | Elo: 1335.6 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.67 (ranked 334 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Bryant

Record: 9-20 | Elo: 1427.8 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.28 (ranked 340 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Maine

Record: 8-22 | Elo: 1398.1 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.02 (ranked 288 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

NJIT

Record: 15-15 | Elo: 1413.5 (ranked 289 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.94 (ranked 287 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UMBC

Record: 20-8 | Elo: 1516.3 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.51 (ranked 132 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UMass Lowell

Record: 13-17 | Elo: 1447.5 (ranked 250 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.12 (ranked 280 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UNH

Record: 8-20 | Elo: 1337.9 (ranked 343 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.61 (ranked 322 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Vermont

Record: 19-11 | Elo: 1574.9 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.95 (ranked 164 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

America East Analysis: Week 17 Wrap-up

As the America East season continues, our analysis reveals trends that can help identify which teams are genuinely improving and which are experiencing unsustainable momentum. This week’s focus is on the key defensive and rebounding trends for each team.

Albany Great Danes: Struggling with Turnovers

Albany’s defense has been steadily worsening in terms of turnover percentage, indicating a potential problem on both ends of the court. Their shooting trend, marked as down (6), suggests that their scoring efficiency may be declining. This could impact Albany’s chances of improving its overall performance.

Binghamton Bearcats: Building Momentum

Binghamton’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, with a significant increase in rebounding percentage (73%). This trend highlights their ability to secure key rebounds and limit opponents’ second-chance scoring opportunities.

UMass Lowell River Hawks: Defensive Strengths Shining

In contrast to their peers, UMass Lowell’s defense has been excelling on the glass, steadily improving their defensive rebounding percentage (73.5).

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAmerica East
TagsAEC America East America East Conference

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