Big Sky Update: Week 17

Big Sky Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. E Washington, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.031 – Eastern Washington’s shooting has shown marked improvement, particularly from 3-point range, directly contributing to their overall performance.
  2. Montana, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.029 – Montana’s struggles with scoring opportunities are exacerbated by their inability to secure defensive rebounds, a problem that is compounded by their low Off Rebound Percentage, particularly notable in situations where Montana has failed to capitalize on second-chance scoring opportunities.
  3. Idaho State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.02 – Idaho State’s inability to secure defensive rebounds, a crucial aspect of limiting second-chance opportunities for opposing teams, has become a significant problem due to their ongoing rebounding struggles.
  4. Montana State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – The Montana State Bobcats are struggling on the glass, with their inability to secure rebounds leading to a series of possession-wasting mistakes that are negatively impacting their overall performance.
  5. E Washington, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – Eastern Washington’s turnover struggles have been a significant issue, but their performance appears to be stabilizing as they reduce turnovers on the field.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Idaho, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.032 – Idaho’s lackluster defensive rebounding efforts have created an ongoing issue limiting their ability to effectively contain opponents’ scoring opportunities.
  2. E Washington, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – Eastern Washington has struggled to improve its overall defensive performance, despite showing a slight uptick in securing defensive rebounds over the last five games.
  3. N Arizona, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – North Arizona’s defense has struggled to contain opponents’ three-point shooting, leading to increased scoring opportunities for their opponents in recent contests, with a troubling trend emerging that highlights the team’s need to improve its perimeter defense.
  4. E Washington, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – E Washington’s defense has struggled to contain its opponents’ increasing shooting proficiency, particularly against Idaho State, who have seen a significant rise in made three-point shots, and Montana, whose overall field goal percentage has improved.
  5. Idaho, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Idaho’s inability to force turnovers struggles with maintaining possession, allowing opponents to maintain extended periods and ultimately impacting their scoring opportunities.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Washington

Record: 13-17 | Elo: 1469.0 (ranked 225 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.13 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Idaho

Record: 16-14 | Elo: 1441.7 (ranked 255 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.22 (ranked 220 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Idaho State

Record: 12-18 | Elo: 1398.9 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.92 (ranked 278 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Montana

Record: 16-13 | Elo: 1525.8 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.78 (ranked 232 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Montana State

Record: 17-13 | Elo: 1500.9 (ranked 187 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.82 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

N Arizona

Record: 10-20 | Elo: 1371.4 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.75 (ranked 335 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

N Colorado

Record: 19-11 | Elo: 1552.9 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.06 (ranked 209 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Portland State

Record: 18-10 | Elo: 1522.9 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.98 (ranked 216 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Sacramento St

Record: 9-20 | Elo: 1313.8 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.04 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Weber State

Record: 16-14 | Elo: 1460.6 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.01 (ranked 235 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big Sky Teams’ Momentum Shifts Highlighted by Key Trends

As Week 17 of the college basketball season comes to a close, we’ve taken a closer look at the momentum indicators for teams in the Big Sky Conference. Using MACD trending metrics, our analysis has pinpointed areas where certain teams are genuinely improving or showing signs of decline.

Offensive Shifts:

  • Eastern Washington is showing an improvement in its turnover rate, suggesting they’re doing a better job of managing possession and minimizing mistakes.
  • The Eagles’ opponent shooting percentage is actually trending down, indicating that their opponents are having less success on offense against them.

Defensive Stances:

  • Eastern Washington’s defensive rebounding percentage is trending up, a key indicator of their team’s ability to secure additional chances on the glass.
  • Idaho State is struggling with forcing turnovers from their opponents, and their opponent turnover rate is actually trending down.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSC
TagsBig Sky Big Sky Conference BSC

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