Big West Update: Week 17

Big West Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Long Beach St, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.028 – Long Beach St has been struggling with a persistent problem on their board presence, making it increasingly difficult for them to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
  2. Cal Poly, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.026 – Cal Poly’s inability to effectively convert opponents’ errors into scoring opportunities proves to be a significant problem in their overall offense.
  3. Hawai’i, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.025 – Hawai’i struggles with securing second-chance opportunities, which significantly hampers their offense and contributes to overall performance issues.
  4. CSU Fullerton, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.024 – CSU Fullerton’s shooting has shown a notable improvement, with an increase in field goal percentage that has provided a crucial boost to their overall performance.
  5. CSU Fullerton, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – CSU Fullerton’s struggles with turnovers, a trend marked as NEGATIVE in their recent performance, appear to be alleviated, allowing them to improve their ability to maintain control over the ball by reducing turnover rates.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Hawai’i, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Hawai’i’s shooting woes are a growing concern, with a decline in three-point shot attempts coinciding with a drop in field goal percentage, hindering their offense despite a strong defensive performance limiting opponents to 64 points per game.
  2. Cal Poly, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Cal Poly’s struggle to secure defensive rebounds has hindered their ability to limit scoring opportunities, forcing them to heavily rely on their own offense for points and competitiveness in games against conference opponents.
  3. UC Davis, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – UC Davis has seen a notable surge in defensive rebounding efforts, stifling opponents with its ability to secure rebounds and limit second-chance scoring opportunities.
  4. Cal Poly, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Cal Poly’s defense has created a challenging environment for opponents, forcing them to reevaluate their shooting strategies as they consistently struggle with successful attempts.
  5. Cal Poly, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Cal Poly’s defensive strategy of forcing turnovers has led to a notable decline in opposition turnovers, which has stifled their ability to consistently pressure opponents into mistakes, ultimately creating a significant problem for their overall defensive performance.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

CSU Bakersfield

Record: 8-22 | Elo: 1329.7 (ranked 350 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.26 (ranked 332 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

CSU Fullerton

Record: 15-15 | Elo: 1438.0 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.88 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

CSU Northridge

Record: 18-12 | Elo: 1547.4 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.18 (ranked 238 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Cal Poly

Record: 13-17 | Elo: 1447.5 (ranked 251 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.93 (ranked 266 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Hawai’i

Record: 21-7 | Elo: 1563.8 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.53 (ranked 116 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Long Beach St

Record: 9-21 | Elo: 1350.3 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.66 (ranked 293 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UC Davis

Record: 17-12 | Elo: 1503.7 (ranked 185 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.38 (ranked 211 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UC Irvine

Record: 20-10 | Elo: 1638.8 (ranked 50 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.30 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UC Riverside

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1428.8 (ranked 273 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.09 (ranked 302 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

UC San Diego

Record: 21-9 | Elo: 1622.0 (ranked 59 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.36 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UCSB

Record: 18-12 | Elo: 1530.0 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.95 (ranked 178 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big West Teams Show Mixed Bag of Momentum Heading into Week 18

The Big West season continues to unfold, with several teams exhibiting notable changes in key categories. By examining the MACD trending indicators, we can identify which teams are improving and which may be due for a correction.

Offensive Trends to Watch

  • Cal Poly’s Shooting Percentage: Cal Poly’s shooting percentage has decreased compared to its season average, indicating a trend that may need attention.
  • CSU Northridge’s Struggling Rebound Percentage: CSU Northridge’s offensive rebound percentage is trending downward, indicating a decline in its ability to secure second-chance opportunities.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

  • UC Davis’ Defensive Resurgence: UC Davis’ defense has shown an uptrend in defensive rebounding percentage.
  • CSU Fullerton’s Shooting Percentage: CSU Fullerton’s opponents have seen their shooting percentages increase, suggesting a worsening trend on the defensive end.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBWC
TagsBig West Big West Conference BWC

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