Ohio Valley Update: Week 17

Ohio Valley Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. UT Martin, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.031 – UT Martin’s persistent struggles in securing offensive rebounds, reflected by their low ‘Off Reb Pct’, significantly impact their overall rebounding effort, contributing to their defensive woes.
  2. SIUE, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.029 – SIUE’s struggles with defensive rebounding, particularly on the road where they struggle to match their home game performance, have been compounded by a lack of improvement in this metric over time.
  3. UT Martin, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.02 – UT Martin’s shooting issues have become a persistent problem, limiting their scoring opportunities and hindering their overall offense, particularly evident in their recent string of games where they have struggled to convert shots into points.
  4. SE Missouri St, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – SE Missouri St’s struggles on the defensive glass are a significant issue, contributing significantly to their poor rebounding record, which has led to an increase in points allowed and rebounds given up.
  5. SIUE, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – SIUE’s shooting has shown a notable uptick, which has been a key factor in their enhanced offense over recent games.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. SE Missouri St, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – SE Missouri St’s defense is currently under strain due to its inability to contain opposing teams’ shooting efforts, which has hindered their overall performance on the court.
  2. UT Martin, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – UT Martin’s defense has struggled to limit turnovers, a notable trend in their recent performances that raises concerns about their ability to compete effectively within the Ohio Valley Conference.
  3. SE Missouri St, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – SE Missouri St’s inability to force turnovers has resulted in a significant struggle for the team, hindering its ability to gain momentum and ultimately impacting overall performance negatively.
  4. Tennessee St, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – Tennessee St’s defense has implemented a new strategy prioritizing turnover creation, which has exacerbated their opponents’ difficulties with maintaining possession and securing the ball, resulting in an increase in conceded turnovers that have become a persistent issue for their opponents.
  5. E Illinois, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – E Illinois’s opponents have struggled to find success from beyond the arc, with E Illinois’ defense stifling their scoring efforts, leading to a low conversion rate from three-point range.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Ohio Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Illinois

Record: 11-19 | Elo: 1367.7 (ranked 327 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.06 (ranked 323 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Lindenwood

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1433.7 (ranked 263 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.93 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Little Rock

Record: 11-19 | Elo: 1417.9 (ranked 283 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.73 (ranked 307 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Morehead State

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1517.2 (ranked 164 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.21 (ranked 271 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

SE Missouri St

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1520.5 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.47 (ranked 241 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

SIUE

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1509.1 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.87 (ranked 214 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Southern Indiana

Record: 7-23 | Elo: 1288.5 (ranked 363 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.00 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Tenn Tech

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1393.0 (ranked 314 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.39 (ranked 321 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Tennessee St

Record: 21-9 | Elo: 1549.9 (ranked 114 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.99 (ranked 217 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UT Martin

Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1491.5 (ranked 197 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.49 (ranked 195 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

W Illinois

Record: 5-26 | Elo: 1264.9 (ranked 367 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -35.40 (ranked 363 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Ohio Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Ohio Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Ohio Valley Teams’ Momentum Shifts Exposed

As Week 17 comes to a close, our analysis of the Ohio Valley Conference reveals some telling trends in key statistical categories. By scrutinizing these metrics, we can gain insight into which teams are genuinely improving their chances and which are merely experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends

Southern Illinois University Edwardsville (SIUE) has seen an improvement in shooting accuracy, with a slight increase from 45% to 46%. Conversely, SIUE’s off-rebounding percentage has declined from 22.5 to 21.8, indicating that while the team is getting better shots, it may struggle to secure them.

UT Martin’s shooting accuracy has decreased from 42.1 to 40.9%.

Defensive Trends

SE Missouri St has seen a decline in opponent’s shooting percentage, with a slight decrease from 45% to 44.3%. Meanwhile, UT Martin is bucking this trend with a slight improvement in forcing turnovers from its opponents, indicating that the team’s defense is becoming more effective at disrupting the opposition’s offense.

Implications

These trends have significant implications for each team’s prospects moving forward. SIUE’s improved shooting accuracy could be beneficial if sustained, while UT Martin’s struggles on offense may hinder its progress.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryOVC
TagsOhio Valley Ohio Valley Conference OVC

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