American Update: Week 18

American Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Tulane, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.025 – Tulane’s ongoing defensive rebounding woes are hindering their momentum, as they consistently fail to secure crucial rebounds on both ends of the court, resulting in a loss of possession and control that negatively impacts their overall strategy.
  2. Temple, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Temple’s inability to secure crucial possessions on the defensive board contributes to their struggling ability to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities.
  3. USF, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – USF’s improved ability to secure key possessions can be directly attributed to their enhanced glass work, particularly in capitalizing on second-chance opportunities after struggling with this aspect of their game.
  4. Memphis, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Memphis has been struggling with a significant increase in turnovers, exacerbating their already tenuous grip on possession and hindering coherent play execution.
  5. USF, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – USF has implemented improvements to reduce turnovers, a persistent issue affecting their performance.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Memphis, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.018 – Home games against Memphis have proven stifling for opponents’ shooting efforts, as their attempts are frequently shut down by Memphis’ strong defense.
  2. Memphis, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Memphis’ stifling defensive strategy appears to be creating difficulties for the team in forcing turnovers, a trend that warrants further examination of the Tigers’ tactics and their impact on possession-based offense.
  3. USF, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.01 – The USF Bulls’ defense has been limiting their opponents’ scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers, which has led to an increase in scoring opportunities for the team.
  4. ECU, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – East Carolina’s defense has struggled to generate takeaways, specifically Opp Turnovers, indicating a concerning trend for the team that highlights their inability to capitalize on opponents’ mistakes.
  5. Temple, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Temple’s defense has struggled to disrupt its opponents and consistently generate turnovers, which is becoming a significant problem for the team.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 14-16 | Elo: 1461.1 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.42 (ranked 162 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

ECU

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1436.4 (ranked 258 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.34 (ranked 245 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

FAU

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1551.7 (ranked 115 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.30 (ranked 109 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Memphis

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1569.5 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.86 (ranked 132 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

North Texas

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1580.9 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.50 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Rice

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1425.7 (ranked 273 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.37 (ranked 233 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Temple

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1490.2 (ranked 200 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.15 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Tulane

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1520.5 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.50 (ranked 217 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Tulsa

Record: 25-6 | Elo: 1591.2 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.31 (ranked 43 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UAB

Record: 20-11 | Elo: 1617.0 (ranked 63 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.28 (ranked 119 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

USF

Record: 23-8 | Elo: 1628.5 (ranked 56 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.86 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UTSA

Record: 5-25 | Elo: 1312.2 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.35 (ranked 343 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Wichita State

Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1598.5 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.65 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

American Teams Show Varied Improvement in Key Metrics

As we conclude our analysis of Week 18, several teams have demonstrated significant improvements in key areas, while others are struggling.

On offense, Memphis has reduced its turnover rate seasonally (Turnovers: Season Avg: 0.177, Trend: Down), which is a strong trend for the team. Conversely, Temple’s inability to hold onto the ball has hindered its performance, as evidenced by a worsening trend in Turnovers (Season Avg: 0.178, Trend: Up).

On the defensive side, Eastern Carolina’s trend of forcing fewer turnovers is a problem for its ability to pressure opponents, resulting in a negative trend in Opp Turnovers (Season Avg: 0.153, Trend: Down). Memphis struggles on defense, allowing better shooting percentages seasonally, which is reflected by an increasing Opp Shooting trend (Opp Shooting: Season Avg: 0.49, Trend: Up).

USF has shown marked improvement on both offense and defense, having reduced its turnover rate seasonally while also increasing its ability to force opponents into mistakes (Turnovers: Season Avg: 0.177, Trend: Down).

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC
TagsAAC American American Athletic Conference American Conference

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