Big South Update: Week 18

Big South Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Charleston So, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.038 – Charleston So struggles with maintaining a consistent offense due to its off rebound percentage, which limits its ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities by failing to secure second-chance possessions.
  2. Gardner-Webb, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.025 – Gardner-Webb’s inability to secure rebounds on offense has proven to be a significant problem, hindering their ability to maintain possession and scoring efficiency.
  3. Charleston So, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Charleston So’s shooting struggles from beyond the arc have been an ongoing issue, which has impacted their scoring ability.
  4. High Point, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – High Point’s shooting woes have become a persistent issue for their offense, contributing to its inability to establish consistent performance.
  5. USC Upstate, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – USC Upstate’s turnover issues are significantly impacting their ability to maintain possession on offense, contributing to a struggle with ball control that stems from an inability to effectively manage the flow of play and retain possession.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. High Point, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – High Point’s defense has struggled with opponents’ scoring, as evidenced by their inability to contain opponents effectively in recent matches.
  2. Charleston So, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Charleston So’s inability to secure defensive rebounds consistently allows opponents to capitalize on put-back opportunities, exacerbating their overall struggles in rebounding.
  3. Longwood, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – Longwood’s improved defensive rebounding has allowed them to gain an advantage on the glass, but they still struggle with securing rebounds in critical situations.
  4. Gardner-Webb, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Gardner-Webb’s defense has struggled to contain opponents’ improved shooting, stifling their three-point shots while allowing opponents to capitalize on this advantage.
  5. Gardner-Webb, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – Gardner-Webb’s defense has forced opponents into turnovers, leading to a rapid transition back on offense and limiting their chances of finding an open shot.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charleston So

Record: 15-17 | Elo: 1399.8 (ranked 301 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.02 (ranked 240 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Gardner-Webb

Record: 4-29 | Elo: 1299.8 (ranked 360 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -36.70 (ranked 364 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

High Point

Record: 30-4 | Elo: 1695.2 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.31 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Longwood

Record: 16-16 | Elo: 1457.5 (ranked 241 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.49 (ranked 256 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Presbyterian

Record: 15-18 | Elo: 1415.2 (ranked 283 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.64 (ranked 268 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Radford

Record: 16-16 | Elo: 1466.6 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.47 (ranked 265 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UNC Asheville

Record: 14-17 | Elo: 1489.7 (ranked 202 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.17 (ranked 261 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

USC Upstate

Record: 13-19 | Elo: 1348.2 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.16 (ranked 317 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Winthrop

Record: 23-11 | Elo: 1584.2 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.02 (ranked 208 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big South Analysis Wrap-Up: Week 18

As we conclude our analysis of the Big South Conference for Week 18, let’s delve into the key trends that have emerged from the data.

Offensive Trends to Watch

USC Upstate’s turnovers are trending up, which could impact their chances moving forward. In contrast, Charleston So is seeing improvements in shooting efficiency, a positive trend that bodes well for their scoring potential. Meanwhile, Gardner-Webb’s offense has seen an improvement in opponent shooting efficiency, making it more challenging for their opponents to score.

Defensive Trends to Focus On

Gardner-Webb’s defense is forcing more turnovers from their opponents, which could be a key factor in their success. Conversely, Charleston So’s defensive rebounding percentage has declined, allowing opponents more chances to grab boards and potentially score. The Mean Absolute Deviation (MACD) trending indicators have provided valuable insights into the teams’ performances, highlighting areas of improvement and struggle for each team moving forward.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSOU
TagsBig South Big South Conference BSOU

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