Coastal Update: Week 18

Coastal Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Elon, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.029 – Elon’s struggles with shooting accuracy and efficiency are contributing to their performance problems, with a notable decline in made three-point shots per game impacting their overall scoring ability.
  2. Elon, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.028 – Elon’s inability to secure defensive rebounds is a pressing issue that negatively impacts their overall performance.
  3. Charleston, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Charleston’s turnover struggles have been an issue, and their improved performance suggests they’re finding ways to mitigate this weakness, which has likely contributed to their overall improvement.
  4. Elon, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – Turnovers have been a persistent issue for Elon, hindering their team’s ability to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities, ultimately affecting their overall performance.
  5. Hampton, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Hampton’s remarkable decrease in turnovers has been a game-changer, leading to a notable shift towards more fluid and cohesive team play, characterized by better ball control and reduced mistakes.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Charleston, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – Charleston’s inability to secure rebounds on defense creates a ripple effect that makes it challenging for them to maintain defensive cohesion, as opponents are able to exploit second-chance opportunities and gain a significant advantage.
  2. Hofstra, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – Hofstra’s defensive efforts struggle due to opponents’ improved shooting accuracy, putting their capabilities under pressure.
  3. Northeastern, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Northeastern’s aggressive pursuit of rebounds has translated into a significant advantage on the glass, particularly in securing defensive boards.
  4. Northeastern, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Northeastern’s defense has struggled to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities and effectively convert possession into turnovers, departing from its typical strong performance in these areas.
  5. Elon, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.007 – Elon’s stifling of opponents has led to a considerable impact on opponent turnovers, creating numerous scoring opportunities for the team.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Colonial teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Campbell

Record: 15-17 | Elo: 1485.5 (ranked 207 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.29 (ranked 211 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Charleston

Record: 21-11 | Elo: 1626.8 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.33 (ranked 189 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Drexel

Record: 17-16 | Elo: 1504.8 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.94 (ranked 185 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Elon

Record: 14-18 | Elo: 1427.1 (ranked 270 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.36 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Hampton

Record: 13-19 | Elo: 1419.3 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.86 (ranked 278 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Hofstra

Record: 22-10 | Elo: 1586.1 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.28 (ranked 72 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Monmouth

Record: 18-14 | Elo: 1531.6 (ranked 139 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.28 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

NC A&T

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1353.3 (ranked 336 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.15 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Northeastern

Record: 7-24 | Elo: 1372.8 (ranked 322 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.63 (ranked 274 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Stony Brook

Record: 17-15 | Elo: 1451.3 (ranked 246 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.42 (ranked 247 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Towson

Record: 19-14 | Elo: 1578.5 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.13 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UNC Wilmington

Record: 26-6 | Elo: 1663.7 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.54 (ranked 99 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

William & Mary

Record: 20-12 | Elo: 1521.0 (ranked 153 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.57 (ranked 165 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Colonial Teams’ Week 18 Breakdown

As we conclude our analysis of Colonial teams for Week 18, several key trends have emerged that are worth examining.

On the offensive side, Charleston’s turnover rate has seen a notable decrease from 0.15, indicating an improvement in their ball control. In contrast, Elon’s shooting percentage has been trending downward with a decline evident over time.

Elon also faces challenges on offense, including a worsening turnover rate. The team’s inability to manage possessions efficiently may hinder their overall performance.

In terms of defensive performance, Hofstra’s defense has shown improvement in limiting their opponents’ shooting percentages. They have successfully contested shots and forced misses, leading to an upward trend in opposing turnovers.

Hofstra’s ability to force turnovers from their opponents has improved significantly, with an upward trend in opposing turnover rates indicating a strong defensive effort.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCAA
TagsCAA Coastal Coastal Athletic Association Colonial Colonial Athletic Association

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