WAC Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Abil Christian, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.039 – Abil Christian’s offense has struggled with rebounding percentages, a problem that contributes to difficulties in maintaining possession and creating scoring opportunities.
Southern Utah, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.021 – Southern Utah’s shooting performance has been steadily improving, which has allowed them to capitalize on scoring opportunities and gain a significant advantage over their opponents in terms of overall effectiveness on the court.
California Baptist, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – California Baptist has seen a notable increase in shooting efficiency, which has contributed to their improved overall performance as they make a significant number of three-point shots and average more shots made per game compared to the same period last season.
Abil Christian, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Abil Christian has struggled with their 3-point shooting in Week 18 of the WAC Conference.
Utah Valley, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Utah Valley’s improved efficiency on offense can be attributed to their reduced turnovers, contributing to their recent success in Week 18 of the WAC conference schedule.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Tarleton, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Tarleton’s defense has been unable to effectively limit opponents’ possessions by forcing turnovers, a recurring issue in recent games that continues to hinder their overall performance.
Tarleton, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Tarleton’s defense is struggling against increasingly efficient opponents, making it harder for Tarleton’s defense to hold off them successfully.
California Baptist, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – The defense of California Baptist struggles with opponents’ improved shooting, marking a stark contrast from their usual defensive capabilities.
Utah Valley, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Utah Valley’s opponents have struggled with shooting against them, as evidenced by Utah Valley: Opp Shooting, a trend where teams consistently struggle to find their rhythm.
Utah Tech, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Utah Tech is experiencing difficulties forcing turnovers, which seems to be stifling opponents and creating a problem on the defensive side of the field.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for WAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: March 02 – March 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Utah Valley, California Baptist, Utah Tech, Southern Utah
Trending Down (Efficiency): Tarleton, Abil Christian, UT Arlington

Team-by-Team Analysis

Abil Christian

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1436.8 (ranked 257 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.98 (ranked 300 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

California Baptist

Record: 23-8 | Elo: 1596.5 (ranked 75 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.32 (ranked 156 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Southern Utah

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1383.1 (ranked 315 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.54 (ranked 319 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Tarleton

Record: 14-17 | Elo: 1428.9 (ranked 266 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.53 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UT Arlington

Record: 17-13 | Elo: 1502.6 (ranked 185 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.99 (ranked 222 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Utah Tech

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1465.0 (ranked 231 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.06 (ranked 235 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Utah Valley

Record: 24-7 | Elo: 1657.1 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.42 (ranked 118 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across WAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

WAC Teams’ Momentum and Improvement: A Data-Driven Analysis

As the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) season continues, we examine key offensive and defensive trends to identify which teams are genuinely improving.

Offensive Trends:

Utah Valley’s shooting percentage has increased, trending upward strongly with a season average of 0.49. California Baptist also shows an improvement in their shooting percentage, which is trending up at a strong rate.

Defensive Trends:

Unfortunately for Utah Valley, their opponents’ shooting percentage is increasing, indicating a decline in defensive prowess. In contrast, California Baptist’s defense has improved, with opponents’ shooting percentage trending downward strongly with a season average of 0.46. Tarleton’s defense also shows a problem as their opponents’ shooting percentage is increasing.

Additional Trends:

Utah Tech’s defense faces a challenge as their opponents have been forcing fewer turnovers against them.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryWAC

TagsWAC Western Athletic Conference