Atlantic 10 Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Duquesne, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.05 – Duquesne has shown encouraging progress by improving its offensive rebounding, a development that helps secure second chances off its own misses and positively fuels the team’s overall performance this season.
Fordham, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.02 – The decline in Fordham’s rebounding performance percentage signals an emerging vulnerability that hinders their ability to secure second-chance opportunities and control the tempo of play.
Duquesne, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Duquesne is facing early-season struggles as shooting difficulties have severely hindered their offensive production.
George Mason, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – George Mason’s Shooting is trending down, a worsening trend.
Dayton, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Dayton’s Turnovers is trending down, an improving trend.

Strongest Defensive Trends

G Washington, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.022 – G Washington has demonstrated progress in limiting the efficiency of its defensive efforts against opposing teams throughout the first week of the season.
George Mason, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – George Mason has shown promising early-season progress in curbing opponents’ shooting efficiency.
Fordham, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – Fordham is demonstrating notable progress in generating opponent turnovers, effectively disrupting opposing possessions through enhanced defensive pressure.
Davidson, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Davidson has shown marked improvement in limiting opponent efficiency as the season progresses.
Davidson, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – Davidson’s declining ability to force opponent turnovers suggests a troubling erosion in their defensive pressure during this early stage of the season.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 02 – November 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Davidson, Fordham, G Washington, URI, Richmond
Trending Down (Efficiency): Dayton, Duquesne, George Mason, La Salle, Saint Joe’s

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1540.5 (ranked 117 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.22 (ranked 69 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Dayton

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1610.4 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.03 (ranked 118 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Duquesne

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1525.0 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.69 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Fordham

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1476.6 (ranked 228 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.29 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

G Washington

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1540.2 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.88 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

George Mason

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1593.7 (ranked 59 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.99 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

La Salle

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1435.0 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.63 (ranked 298 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1483.6 (ranked 218 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.20 (ranked 108 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Richmond

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1476.4 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.15 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1606.4 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.11 (ranked 145 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Saint Louis

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1635.8 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.09 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

St Bonaventure

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1507.4 (ranked 175 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.07 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

URI

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1504.4 (ranked 181 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.80 (ranked 34 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

VCU

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1666.0 (ranked 19 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.81 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Analysis of Week 1 momentum reveals distinct trends across several programs, distinguishing between sustainable improvement and regression. Dayton shows strong signs of offensive stabilization regarding ball security, with a season average for turnovers of 0.161; the MACD trend indicates a strong downward trajectory in this metric, signifying genuine improvement as the value decreases. Conversely, Duquesne faces challenges in shooting efficiency despite a season average of 0.55. The data displays a strong upward trend in deviation for this metric, which translates to worsening performance as the shooting value decreases. However, Duquesne is finding positive momentum on the glass, averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 0.294 per possession while trending strongly upward, suggesting increased aggression in securing second-chance points.

Fordham presents a mixed picture regarding rebounding efficiency. Their season average for offensive rebounding percentage stands at 0.342, yet the MACD trend indicates strong downward movement. This deterioration signals worsening efficiency as they fail to maintain possession of rebounds at previous levels. On the defensive end, Davidson is improving their ability to suppress opponent scoring with a season average for opposing shooting percentage of 0.45. The strong downward movement in this statistic indicates meaningful improvement where opponents are shooting less effectively. However, Davidson struggled with disrupting ball handling; while their season average for opposing turnovers was 0.138, the trend moved strongly upward in a negative direction. Since forcing turnovers is a positive outcome, an upward trend in this metric’s deviation signals a decline in performance, meaning the team is currently forcing fewer turnovers than their season average suggests.

Fordham also exhibits strong defensive pressure on ball security, with a season average for opposing turnovers of 0.195. The MACD trend shows strong upward movement aligning with the metric’s definition as an improvement indicator, suggesting Fordham is successfully generating more stops and disrupting opponent possessions. George Mason continues to tighten their defensive stance against opponent shooting. With a season average of 0.38 for opposing shooting percentage, the team displays a strong downward trend; a decrease in this metric signifies improvement, indicating they are increasingly limiting their opponents’ efficiency from the floor. These indicators provide a baseline for evaluating momentum magnitude as teams continue through the schedule.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10

TagsA10 Atlantic 10 Conference