ACC Update: Week 1

ACC Update: Week 1

November 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Florida State, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – Florida State has begun refining its shooting mechanics, a positive trajectory that is enhancing overall offensive production across the season’s initial contests.
  2. Florida State, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Florida State has shown steady improvement in its rebounding percentage as the season progresses, helping the team control the glass early on.
  3. Boston College, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – The reduction in turnovers for Boston College is generating improved ball security that directly supports their offensive rhythm.
  4. Clemson, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – As Clemson continues to limit turnover frequency throughout the season, the sustained preservation of possessions is directly fueling improved offensive efficiency.
  5. Duke, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.009 – As Duke begins its campaign, a troubling increase in turnovers has emerged as a significant liability that threatens to hamper their offensive execution.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Clemson, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Clemson is struggling to prevent its opponents from generating offense as their defensive efficiency declines throughout the season.
  2. Pitt, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Pitt has shown improvement in its ability to disrupt opponent shooting efficiency during this week’s early contests.
  3. Georgia Tech, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Georgia Tech finds itself in trouble as its inability to secure defensive rebounds leaves a trail of second-chance scoring opportunities for opposing teams.
  4. Duke, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Duke is struggling with a decline in defensive rebounding percentage, which translates to yielding more offensive boards for their opponents during the early stages of the season.
  5. Boston College, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.009 – Boston College is displaying improved defensive pressure that results in opposing offenses committing more turnovers.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1463.8 (ranked 247 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.63 (ranked 45 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Cal

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1526.6 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.15 (ranked 135 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Clemson

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1639.7 (ranked 34 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.97 (ranked 109 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Duke

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1780.5 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +43.12 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Florida State

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1567.9 (ranked 81 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.03 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Georgia Tech

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1463.9 (ranked 246 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.77 (ranked 121 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Louisville

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1633.0 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.81 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Miami

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1578.3 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.88 (ranked 66 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

NC State

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1563.5 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.85 (ranked 62 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Notre Dame

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1492.3 (ranked 200 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.99 (ranked 49 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Pitt

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1517.9 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.77 (ranked 44 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

SMU

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1567.2 (ranked 82 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.58 (ranked 106 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Stanford

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1561.4 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.78 (ranked 102 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Syracuse

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1511.0 (ranked 168 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.35 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UNC

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1648.0 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.96 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

UVA

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1669.2 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.31 (ranked 13 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Virginia Tech

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1548.1 (ranked 105 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.02 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Wake Forest

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1542.4 (ranked 115 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.30 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

In wrapping up the Week 1 analysis for the ACC, the MACD trending indicators offer a crucial lens through which to evaluate early-season performance. By analyzing the magnitude of recent shifts, these metrics distinguish between teams building genuine stability and those relying on unsustainable momentum. The following breakdown highlights specific offensive and defensive trends that define the current landscape for each program.

On the offensive side, ball security has emerged as a primary differentiator for several squads. Boston College and Clemson both exhibit strongly downward trends in turnover rates relative to their season averages of 0.106 and 0.128, respectively. This decline in turnovers signals a significant improvement in possession management for both programs. Conversely, Duke presents a stark contrast with a strongly upward trend in turnovers against a season average of 0.168, indicating a worsening efficiency where the value of forced defensive stops is decreasing. Meanwhile, Florida State has shown strong offensive development; their shooting percentage is trending up strongly from a season average of 0.55, suggesting they are generating higher-value possessions consistently.

Defensively, the data reveals a divergence in rebounding and opponent production. Boston College is forcing more turnovers from opponents than their season average suggests (0.182), with a strongly upward trend indicating marked improvement in creating second-chance opportunities for their unit. However, Clemson allows a shooting percentage of 0.56 that is trending up strongly against their season average, representing a clear decline in defensive efficiency as they struggle to limit opponents’ scoring output. Rebounding struggles are also evident elsewhere: Duke and Georgia Tech both show strongly downward trends in defensive rebound percentages from their respective season averages (0.758 for Duke; ~0.69 for Georgia Tech). These metrics indicate that both teams are allowing more offensive boards, a decline that directly aids opposing offenses by generating extra shot attempts against them.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC
TagsACC Atlantic Coast Conference

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